There are four propositions on the roles of scenarios in defense analysis: (Carl Builder, Towards a Calculus of Scenarios)
– At the heart of all military forecasts, plans, and threats are scenarios.
– The worth of an analytic study is more likely to be found in its scenario than in the quality of its arithmetic.
– More often than not, the scenarios used in analytic studies foreordain the analytic results.
– Control of the game scenario is tantamount to control of the game outcome.
The process for creating scenarios for defense analysis has been characterized in the following way: “Scenario Development is the artistic and quasi-scientific process of producing succinct and persuasive stories about trends in an unreal state of future conflict to enable analysis” (Alec Barker from “Fight the Scenario”, CASL Lectures on Strategic Gaming).
This lecture is one in a series that will examine the topic of scenarios in wargames. How do you create a scenario? For what purpose? What are the critical elements of a scenario? This lecture will feature Robert McCreight, an adjunct professor at George Mason University where he has worked on a number of educational wargames. He will speak on the fundamentals of scenario design. Slides will be provided prior to the lecture.
This brown bag will be held entirely via teleconference: (712)770-4160; participant access code 388975#
The MORS Wargame CoP focuses on:
– Best practices for the definition, design, execution, and analysis of wargames.
– Methods from other disciplines that may be of use DoD-oriented wargames.
– Other topics of interest to the group at large … theoretical, practical, policy, legal, historical, as well as wargame results from many national security domains.
Please contact Michael Ottenberg, OSD CAPE SAC at email@example.comfirstname.lastname@example.org for additional information.
The Wargame CoP website is: http://www.mors.org/events/cop_wargaming.aspx
Upcoming MORS Wargame CoP Brown Bag Lectures and meetings:
MORS Wargame III Workshop 17-19 October 2017 Mark Center, Alexandria VA. Attendance for US active duty military/civilians and US allies is free. The fee for others is $250 – MORS members.
MORS Wargame Certificate Program
26 and 27 September VA Tech Research Center, Arlington, VA
10 and 11 October
14, 15, and 16 November