MORS Wargame Community of Practice (CoP) Brown Bag WEDNESDAY 15 February 2017 11:30-1:00 EST – Chuck Burdick “Defense Analysis Scenarios”

In our previous lectures, we examined the steps in creating and executing professional games. We explored the use of professional games in other disciplines with a view towards identifying best practices for application to the defense domain. We examined the theory of wargames and how to apply them to analyze difficult defense problems. We also feature lectures addressing other professional game topics including the role of scenarios in wargames.

There are four propositions on the roles of scenarios in defense analysis: Carl Builder, Towards a Calculus of Scenarios)

– At the heart of all military forecasts, plans, and threats are scenarios.
– The worth of an analytic study is more likely to be found in its scenario than in the quality of its arithmetic.
– More often than not, the scenarios used in analytic studies foreordain the analytic results.
– Control of the game scenario is tantamount to control of the game outcome.

The process for creating scenarios for defense analysis has been characterized in the following way: ‘Scenario Development is the artistic and quasi-scientific process of producing succinct and persuasive stories about trends in an unreal state of future conflict to enable analysis’ — Alec Barker from “Fight the Scenario”, CASL Lectures on Strategic Gaming

This lecture is one in a series that will examine the topic of scenarios in wargames.

This lecture will feature Chuck Burdick. He will discuss the process that was used to develop analytic defense scenarios. This lecture was originally given to the Modelling and Simulation CoP several months ago.

Slides will be provided prior to the lecture.

The brown bag will be held at the Mark Center in Alexandria VA. For those who wish to attend in person, please contact Michael Ottenberg, OSD CAPE SAC at michael.a.ottenberg.ctr@mail.mil for additional information.

For those of you unable to attend in person, we will use a telecom facility. Please use the following telephone number and ID number to participate in the Telecom session:

Conference Dial-In Number: (712) 770-4160
Participant Access Code: 388975#

We have experienced problems with this and other telecom services. Please re-dial if you are unable to initially gain entry to the conference call or you are unexpectedly dropped from the teleconference.

We will execute alternative telecom solutions if technical problems are encountered. An e-mail with instructions will be forwarded as soon as feasible if required.

Please tune in!

Questions? Suggestions for additional presentations? Contact Michael Ottenberg, OSD CAPE SAC at michael.a.ottenberg.ctr@mail.mil.

Our website is: http://www.mors.org/events/cop_wargaming.aspx

Join us for these upcoming MORS Wargame CoP Brown Bag Lectures and meetings:

– 2017

MORS Wargame Certificate Program
February 14 Wargame Technology, Mechanics, and Information Paul Vebber
February 15 Facilitation Mary Cranell
March 8 Practicum Bob Leonhard

Larry Bond 28 February 2017 Scenarios as Narratives

MORSS 85 17 February 2017 Abstracts are due!!

Dr. Ruthanna Gordon, IARPA 15 March 2017 Evaluating Analysis in Wargames

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