There are four propositions on the roles of scenarios in defense analysis (Carl Builder, Towards a Calculus of Scenarios — attached here: N1855 Towards a Calculus of Scenarios Carl Builder):
– At the heart of all military forecasts, plans, and threats are scenarios.
– The worth of an analytic study is more likely to be found in its scenario than in the quality of its arithmetic.
– More often than not, the scenarios used in analytic studies foreordain the analytic results.
– Control of the game scenario is tantamount to control of the game outcome.
This lecture is one in a series that will examine the topic of scenarios in wargames.
This lecture will feature Dr. Yuna Wong from RAND. She will discuss the Joint Irregular Warfare Analytic Baseline (JIWAB) study. This study was a multi-year effort by the U.S. Marine Corps to demonstrate analytic methods better suited to irregular warfare than quantitative computer models and simulations. Multiple methods were used in combination to create and develop scenarios, understand conflict drivers and mitigators, and create potential U.S. responses.
Yuna Huh Wong, PhD, is a RAND Corporation researcher. She was previously an operations research analyst for the Marine Corps OAD, where she was the methodology lead for the JIWAB study.
Slides will be provided prior to the lecture.
The brown bag will be held at the Mark Center in Alexandria VA. For those who wish to attend in person, please contact Michael Ottenberg, OSD CAPE SAC at email@example.com for additional information.
For those of you unable to attend in person, we will use a telecom facility. Please use the following telephone number and ID number to participate in the Telecom session:
Conference Dial-In Number: (712) 770-4160
Participant Access Code: 388975#
We have experienced problems with this and other telecom services. Please re-dial if you are unable to initially gain entry to the conference call or you are unexpectedly dropped from the teleconference.
We will execute alternative telecom solutions if technical problems are encountered. An e-mail with instructions will be forwarded as soon as feasible if required.
Our website is: http://www.mors.org/events/cop_wargaming.aspx
Join us for these upcoming MORS Wargame CoP Brown Bag Lectures and meetings:
MORS Wargame Certificate Program
January 10 Wargaming Theory Dr. Peter Perla
January 11 Wargaming Research and Design Dr. Jon Compton
January 18 Introduction to Wargaming Dr. Ed McGrady
January 19 Advanced Topics in Wargaming Dr. Ed McGrady
February 14 Wargame Technology, Mechanics, and Information Paul Vebber
February 15 Facilitation Mary Cranell
February CoP Lecture
The MORS Wargame CoP holds a periodic Brown Bag Lunch where a variety of topics are discussed. MORS Wargame CoP members include military personnel, civilians, contractors, academics, and others that use professional games as a tool for analysis, education, and training.
The MORS Wargame CoP focuses on:
– Best practices for the definition, design, execution, and analysis of wargames.
– Methods from other disciplines that may be of use DoD-oriented wargames.
– Other topics of interest to the group at large … theoretical, practical, policy, legal, historical, as well as wargame results from many national security domains.
In our previous lectures, we examined the steps in creating and executing professional games. We explored the use of professional games in other disciplines with a view towards identifying best practices for application to the defense domain. We examined the theory of wargames and how to apply them to analyze difficult defense problems. We also feature lectures addressing other professional game topics including the role of scenarios in wargames.