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Modeling detection strategies to battle improvised explosive devices
| Author: | Jones, Jason, S. |
| Title: | Modeling detection strategies to battle improvised explosive devices |
| Abstract: | Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) have become the weapon of choice for non-state actors around the globe choosing to conduct violent asymmetrical actions. This is particularly true of the insurgency in Iraq. IEDs have accounted for over one-third of the deaths among U.S. military forces in Iraq. To date, the U.S. has spent billions of dollars on solutions to mitigate this threat. Though much effort and money has been focused on developing technical solutions, or trying to find a “silver bullet,” not much effort has been focused on studying the optimal employment of these solutions. This thesis considers two types of sensors, and develops two corresponding models to determine the optimal employment of the sensors to search for IEDs. The models represent a “dummy” sensor and a “smart” sensor, both of which seek to maximize the expected number of road segments “determined” with some degree of certainty. A road segment is said to be “determined” if the searcher can ascertain, with high probability whether it contains an IED or not. In general terms, a “dummy” sensor may continue to allocate its resources to a segment that has been “determined,” whereas a “smart” sensor does not. The sensors we consider are imperfect, that is, false-positive detections may occur, and IEDs can be overlooked due to false-negative results. A comparative analysis of the two sensors is conducted to measure the performance, effectiveness, and sensitivity of each sensor in a large number of different scenarios. Among all our results, the most striking is the significant difference in performance between the two sensors for scenarios of maximum uncertainty as opposed to scenarios where there is strong intelligence regarding the presence or absence of IEDs. |
| Date: | September 2006 |
| Url: | controlled distribution |
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Air Education & Training Symposium 2009